Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Will Hold an Impressive 85 Percent Market Share, According to Findings from Decision Resources Group
July 9, 2014
Decision Resources Group finds that the immunotherapy market will experience considerable growth through 2022, increasing from $1.1 billion in 2012 to nearly $9 billion in 2022 (corresponding to 23.8 percent annual growth) in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan. This impressive growth will be driven by the expected market entry of nine novel immunotherapies—including four novel immune checkpoint inhibitors and five novel therapeutic vaccines—in new oncology indications and/or patient populations. Taken together, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s anti-CTLA-4 agent Yervoy and novel immune checkpoint inhibitors that target the anti-programmed cell death-1/programmed death-ligand-1 (PD-1/PD-L1) pathway—including Bristol-Myers Squibb/Ono Pharmaceutical’s nivolumab, Merck & Co.’s pembrolizumab (MK-3475), Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s MPDL-3280A and AstraZeneca/MedImmune’s MEDI4736—will dominate the immunotherapy market and capture a staggering 85 percent market share in 2022.
- Potential of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents: Interviewed experts are considerably optimistic about the potential of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents based on promising data released to date in multiple oncology indications. The added prospect of using PD-L1 expression as a potential predictive biomarker for personalizing treatment intrigues interviewed experts; however, they remain cautious on this point, noting that considerable heterogeneity exists in PD-L1 expression and that good objective responses have also been reported in patients deemed to have no or low levels of PD-L1 expression.
- Combination approaches for immunotherapies: Owing to impressive early-phase data presented at the 2014 annual meeting of the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO), interviewed experts express enthusiasm for combination approaches involving immunotherapies—including dual blockade of the immune checkpoint pathway, combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors with therapeutic cancer vaccines and combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors with chemotherapy.
- Market outlook for therapeutic vaccines: The therapeutic vaccines segment will witness 13.6 percent annual sales growth over the 2012 to 2022 forecast period, although, with combined major-market sales reaching $1.2 billion in 2022, these agents will fall short of replicating the commercial success of immune checkpoint inhibitors.
- “A plethora of immunotherapies are in development across a wide range of oncology indications, making this drug class one of the most exciting to watch. We anticipate that nivolumab will be the sales-leading agent among immunotherapies. However, it will face direct and intense competition from other anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents—notably from pembrolizumab in malignant melanoma and non-small-cell lung cancer—and, to a lesser extent, from MPDL-3280A in non-small-cell lung cancer.”
- “Interviewed experts express mixed reactions to therapeutic vaccines and note the challenges in monitoring the efficacy of these agents. Nevertheless, they are hopeful that some vaccines will provide new therapeutic options and hold greatest promise as part of combination strategies.”