Dr. GS Ready talked about the vaccine scenario in emerging markets, focusing on India as a representative of what is happening in the BRICS countries. Emerging economies are trending towards overtaking the developed countries in the coming years. The market potential index (MPI) is significant for emerging markets, considering market size (population size) and growth rate (birth rates). Some of the growth is happening with increases in poverty alleviation and the growing numbers of middle class consumers for health and other markets.
Indian vaccine companies are focused mostly on the public market in India and traditional vaccinations, with high volume and low price. Multi-national companies are very active in the private market with all of the new vaccine introductions. The MMR, MR, JE, and pentavalent vaccines are likely to be added in the future.
In India, there are significant differences in prices for vaccines available in the public market versus those available in the private market. While a bag of chips costs 40 cents, for vaccines: DTP costs 5 cents/dose, Tetanus costs 3 cents/dose, and Hepatitis B costs 5 cents/dose. There is a growth rate, however, and increased pricing for new vaccines. India is expecting 30-40% growth in the vaccine market for certain vaccines in the coming years.
The top four vaccine development companies by per cent market share are multinationals (GSK Sanofi Aventis, Pfizer, Novartis) followed by Indian national companies. There is a shift in buyer numbers from the public market to the private market. Paediatricians’ recommendations for newer vaccines are influencing this shift. Currently, vaccine doses are targeted at 23 million public market vaccines compared with 1 million in the private market. It does not appear that the public market will increase dramatically in the coming years. Even a small per cent growth in the private market leads to a large population of buyers, and large potential for profits.
Strengths in India’s vaccine market include: trained and knowledgeable workers, a network of labs, WHO pre-qualified vaccine manufacturers, and low manufacturing and clinical trial costs. Opportunities for developers include untapped markets and a growing middle class with higher disposable income. There are some threats from markets in other countries like China with competitive advances. Key drivers for expansion in the vaccine market in India include affordability, accessibility, acceptability, and availability.
Challenges that remain are pressures on pricing, high interest rates, a long "gestation period" for vaccines, duties on raw material imports, and difficult logistics. Final remarks by Dr. Reddy highlighted the growth in the market and shift from public to private markets, and establishment of vaccine branding.
Check back here in a couple of days for the full presentation. Excellent presentation Dr Reddy!